sarea: (jon snow)
[personal profile] sarea
Finally finished A Dance with Dragons. I've been avoiding LJ since it came out. It took me 13 days, which is pretty slow ([personal profile] akscully finished in A DAY), but I've also been juggling with some real life time commitments.

I have so many thoughts and theories it's crazy. I keep thinking of other stuff, and then I read a spoiler thread, and other people's thoughts get me thinking some more, so then there is thinking thinking THINKING.

My first feeling after finishing the book -- and while reading -- was a vague sense of disappointment. Not because I wasn't glad to finally have ADWD and be able to read what happens next, but because the book felt a lot like OOTP did when that came out after a long hiatus. It must be the fifth book blues. This book was similar style/depth to AFFC, which isn't surprising because they were really supposed to be one book, but it did mean that there was a lot of moving pieces into place and not a whole lot of action. It's my own fault for expecting more than that. I knew the book was parallel to AFFC and that it'd be mostly about the characters we didn't see in that book, doing things during that same time period. Yet somehow I still expected more in the way of Big Things Revealed. There are still two more books to go, though, so that wasn't reasonable. Even though a lot of us probably think this is going to be the last book (given how long it took GRRM to get it out, and he's no Young Wolf), it's NOT actually the last book. There's probably ~2,000 pages (assuming each book runs about 1,000 pages) left of story to tell, so there's a lot of shit that needs to happen in those pages.

I finished the book yesterday, and today I feel almost completely differently about the book. I actually think it was a great book, with lots of stories well told. It was just my own unrealistic expectations about what would be revealed and what would happen that caused me disappointment. This is always the danger of having too much time to look forward to something, I suppose. You think and you plot and when those things don't come true and there are totally different things that happen and characters that are introduced you never even thought of, it just doesn't "feel" quite right. That's why I was never really "disappointed" when I was reading the first four books. I didn't have time; I was on a journey, and I never had to question what was going on or make my own theories, because there was always more canon to read. Then AFFC came to an end, and suddenly *I* had to wonder and fill in the holes.

In any case, ADWD was a fantastic read, and now I am just sad that it's over. Now there are other cliffhangers to care about now that the ones in AFFC have been resolved. In fact, I care a lot more about the cliffhangers from THIS book than I did AFFC. Jon Snow's possible death means a lot more to me than Brienne's possible death.

Jon Snow's what? :)))) Yeah. I think to make this easier I'm going to talk through the book character by character. It's either that or chapter by chapter, and that's too much for me (or probably anyone to have to put up with). I'm going to save Jon for last. Then at the end I'll go through theories about various things, which works with Jon being last because they're mostly about him anyway.

First, let me mention the characters we didn't hear from or about that I missed: Sansa, Jaqen H'ghar, The Hound.

Characters

Arya Stark: I'm not really clear what's going on with Arya or what GRRM's intentions for her are. It seems at times like she's supposed to become a Faceless Woman, then at other times it seems like she's just going to learn some skills then move on. I can't distinguish it because she seems to be successfully going through her training (I liked the twist done for her first mark, where we totally think she's going to throw her dagger at the guy, but it's not that at all), and yet a true Faceless Man, as the kindly man keeps telling her, has no sides, chooses no victims, etc. But as we know from Arya's POV, she is still reciting the names of all those who wronged her, so obviously she has not actually adopted any neutrality. And if she did, what would be the point of her character in the overall plotline?

Aegon Targaryen: I hated the return of Aegon. :/ I knew it was likely that he wasn't dead, after reading this interview with GRRM where he stated that Princess Rhaenys was definitely dead, but was equivocal about Aegon. I liked Aegon the character okay; just the FACT of him being alive is what bothers me. It's not only kind of soap opera-y with all the baby switching, it also takes away from Jon, who I believe is Rhaegar's son as well, and it takes away from Dany, who was supposed to be the last trueborn Targaryen fighting for her rightful throne. It completely diminishes her claim (and Jon's, but that was always a stretch with Dany in the picture), and given that she's such a great strong female character, Aegon showing up and being Mr. Rightful Heir just kind of ruins it.

A lot of people seem to believe that Aegon is going to die at some point, and initially I thought so as well (though maybe I was just hoping). But I find it kind of hard to believe, because he is SUCH an important character in the war for Westeros, and has such a good claim, and his reveal of being alive is such a big deal, that I can't imagine GRRM brought him back from the dead just to kill him off before he makes a big impact. Or even kill him off before he can get his throne. I mean, he's been kept a big secret for like 17 years or whatever. His death would unravel all of Varys's plans, and again, make his return utterly meaningless. So I think there are big plans for him. The problem is, that's what I don't like, why I wish he'd just stayed dead. There's enough going on without his return, and other claims to the throne from characters we have grown to love over four other books, that might not be as good as his, but who we were rooting for anyway.

There are also people who don't believe he's the real deal, but at the moment I'm pretty convinced. Knowing how Jon Connington felt about Rhaegar, there's no way Jon would try to make some fake kid Rhaegar's son and give him Rhaegar's rightful throne. Which means, if there's been a deception, it would be on the part of Varys, and why would he go to such lengths to put an imposter on the Iron Throne? It doesn't really make any sense from what we know of Varys, unless there are facts we don't know yet (which is not unlikely). For right now I think Aegon is exactly who they all claim he is -- he even has the right coloring, though I think the Daynes also had light hair and purple eyes as well.

Now I'm thinking some more, and I may be thinking about this too much. But actually, the fact that Aegon has Targaryen coloring is actually suspect, when his mother is Elia Martell. I can't find any reference to what she looked like, but Oberyn, her brother, was dark haired, so I assume she was as well (and I've always pictured her as dark haired, so it's probably mentioned somewhere?). If that's the case, wouldn't her kids most likely be dark haired as well, because those genes are dominant? I mean, look at Jon Snow, who looks like Lyanna...though of course there's no substantiated proof yet that he's Rhaegar's son. Then look at Cersei's kids, which was the point of the plot from GoT. The Baratheons are all dark haired, so Robert's kids should also be dark haired, that's the proof Ned got that Cersei's kids weren't Robert's. So shouldn't the same principle apply with dark-haired Elia? I just don't know if GRRM is really putting that much thought into these particular details or if we're supposed to forget the genes thing now that GoT is over. :P I suppose it's also possible that Elia had some blonde ancestors and it just so happened that both of her children had light-colored hair. Plus, of course, with Caucasian kids it's fairly common for kids to have light hair that gets darker as they grow older, so that might be fine. Except Aegon is now 16? 17? I can't remember what age is considered "a man grown." Anyway, he's that old now and he still has pure Targaryen coloring? That seems a bit strange/suspect, but maybe it's not supposed to be, maybe I'm supposed to believe that Rhaegar's genes dominated Elia's dark-haired genes. Still, weak as it is, it's the strongest piece of evidence that I've noted that Aegon may not be who they say he is.

Jon Connington: He's okay, I guess. A lot of people loved his character, but I can't separate him from my disappointment with finding out that Aegon is alive. Also, as I was reading his POVs, especially when he was reflecting back on the past, I was like, wow, was I wrong about Rhaegar and Lyanna? Was Rhaegar actually in love with Jon and they were lovahs? Is that why Jon Snow was named Jon? :)) Except [personal profile] akscully assures me that while Jon was in love with Rhaegar, Rhaegar was probably oblivious to it (like Jace and Alec in MI). I hope so. I can't tell you how rabid a R/L shipper I am.

Melisandre: I hated her from the moment we heard of her back in ACOK, from the POV of Stannis's old maester. When I saw she had a POV in ADWD I was like, ugh. Except it turns out that now I think I kind of love her. Okay, maybe love is a strong word. But like, definitely at least that. Previous to actually getting in her head, I thought she was just a jumped-up nobody/faker who knew she was telling lies. Now I know that she actually DOES get visions, and sometimes she just reads them wrong. She's not the malicious person I had always thought she was. And now I think she could be Jon's (Snow, that is) best hope and strongest ally.

Stannis Baratheon: I actually like Stannis a lot. I really wish Christopher Eccleston had been cast in that role. Anyway, yeah he's a hardass. But he's a man of his word. He's on the right side, he's strong and capable, and he doesn't wuss out. He does what needs to be done and doesn't complain. I mean, look at his siege of Storm's End. By the end the dude was living on RATS while the people he was sieging were feasting within his sight. And now the march to Winterfell where he and his entire army are basically freezing and starving to death, but he's still driven and determined. Ultimately, of course, I don't think he belongs on the throne, but I really respect him.

I can't decide if I hope he's actually dead or not, as per Ramsay SNOW'S (that right, I said it, you bastard!) letter. On the one hand, it'd be something of a relief, because I don't think his claim is going anywhere anyway, and I don't think he's Azor Ahai (it's one of the things I think Melisandre is mistaken about), so therefore there's a lot of tedium to his chapters. On the other hand, it seems like a really unworthy way for him to go out (though in real life, that's how it happens -- I mean, look at poor Ned and Robb), and also, the Bastard of Bolton isn't exactly the most reliable source of information (but what would be the point of lying about Stannis's death?). Then on yet another hand (yes, I'm a mutant, I have 3), Stannis kind of NEEDS to die in order for Jon's storyline to move forward... at least what I *think* is going to be his eventual storyline at this point.

Queen Selyse/Shireen/Patchface: I have no use for any of them, though I'm still semi-waiting for a reveal about Patchface actually being like, someone we actually know.

Theon Greyjoy: Okay, I hated Theon for being a scumbag traitor, but I actually felt SORRY for him in this book. Maybe he deserved what Ramsay Snow did to him, because his betrayal of the Starks was so terrible... but another part of me says that no one deserves what Ramsay did to him. The flaying, the cutting off of his penis, the annihilation of his entire personality. I didn't want Theon to die before he'd been able to redeem himself in some way, and his helping Jeyne is a good start. Theon/Jeyne! And his reflection about Robb was one of the most moving things in ADWD, I thought: And Robb. Robb who had been more a brother to Theon than any son born of Balon Greyjoy's loins. Murdered at the Red Wedding, butchered by the Freys. I should have been with him. Where was I? I should have died with him. Theon/Robb 4ever!!!!! As an aside, I really wish they had picked a more attractive actor to play Theon on the show. He's supposed to be attractive. ><

Asha/Victarion/all other Greyjoys: I just can't make myself care about any of them.

Daenerys Targaryen: Ugh, Dany. What is there to say. She was a big disappointment in this book. She stayed in Meereen, wanting to be Queen of the lands across the Narrow Sea, rather than go after Westeros, her birthright. What happened to the strong girl-woman who was determined to claim her throne? Who birthed dragons out of fire? Now she's AFRAID of them? Ugh. Her entire storyline was grating, because she not only stopped kicking ass, but basically forgot all about being the blood of the dragon and started playing mommy to a bunch of random slaves/people who didn't even want her around. It was like she went from being a significant player to being an afterthought. And she did it to herself. I didn't mind her taking Daario as a lover (I'm most definitely not a Jon/Dany shipper), because she IS just a young girl and she wants love as much as anyone, but all her decisions were so DUMB. And based on nothing. She went from being someone strong, who I actually thought could rule and make a difference, to someone who just wanted to play it safe, keep what she had and cower behind her past accomplishments. That was never more obvious than when she married what's his name, Hizdahr or whatever. I mean, WHAT??? WHO CARES ABOUT KEEPING THE PEACE IN MEEREEN. MARRY QUENTYN MARTELL AND FUCKING WIN WESTEROS!!

I'm unclear about what was happening to her when she was walking back to Meereen after being with Drogon. It SEEMED she had contracted cholera -- all the symptoms pointed to it, but there was also some doubt mixed in, I thought, and then there was the weird thing with her period. Plus, could she really have contracted cholera when she made it a point to say that she was like basically immune to disease and always has been? But her symptoms sounded JUST like cholera. So I don't know. I don't know what any of that meant, if there was some deeper significance that I was supposed to understand. Was this supposed to be the first time she'd gotten her period since she'd lost the baby?

And REALLY, another khalasaar? I'm with [personal profile] akscully on this one, she has to go back to go forward... but couldn't "going back" have meant going back to the place where she'd been born? I am so DONE with the horselords and all the poxy towns across the Narrow Sea. BACK TO WESTEROS PLEASE.

The dragons were cool. I liked that part. But I don't think they made up for chapter after chapter of Dany's lameness. I also like that the dragons in this universe are not actually tamed. They're supposed to be wild and majestic creatures, and the idea that anyone could tame them always seemed kind of far fetched. So I like this idea that they have minds of their own, and there might be certain people who they can tolerate more than others, but ultimately they're still dangerous. One discrepancy I noted though was that when Dany went off with Drogon, in the chapter we see her in next, it says that her burns are nearly healed. Then later in the chapter it says that she was immune to the fire the same way she'd been immune to the fire that had birthed the dragons. So which is it? Did she get burned or is she immune? This has significance because of a theory I have about Jon, but I'll talk about that later.

Quentyn Martell: Sigh. I wished him no ill will, though he was another new character that I found pretty boring and pointless. I was about to have a little fit in the chapter called "The Dragontamer" when I thought he might actually tame one of the dragons, because -- who the hell is he to come out of nowhere and have the same power as Dany, with a "drop" of dragon blood in his veins? Still, the way he died was horrible. He should have listened to Selmy's counsel.

Barristan Selmy: Selmy is kind of like Ned all over again, wherein I half admire him, half am totally exasperated with him. Honor is a good thing. BUT WISDOM IS BETTER. And so is common sense, which they both seem to lack.

Tyrion Lannister: Another character across the Narrow Sea. I can't tell you how much less interesting I found all the events in this region, compared to Westeros. All the intrigues between the various sellsword groups gave me a headache. Tyrion's adventures were not an exception, unfortunately. (And his chapters are also tainted with the general disappointment I felt about Aegon's reveal.) I've always liked Tyrion because he always manages to do the right thing without needing to bore anyone to tears with lectures about honor. He saved Penny (call me a dwarfist, but I actually think the two of them are cute together) and he saved Jorah, he figured out who Griff and Young Griff were, and he never loses his cool.

Bran Stark: I wish I found Bran and what he was doing more compelling than I do. I look forward to his chapters mainly in the hopes of gleaning more information (from either Meera/Jojen or through the weirwoods) about Lyanna. It's pretty creepy that Bran is supposed to be destined to become half-corpse, half-tree. And to what end? How does that serve the overall plotline? I guess that remains to be seen. At least he sort of saved Theon? Also, is it just me or does it seem kind of rude and mean whenever he takes over Hodor's body? I wouldn't like it if someone did that to me, and it's not like Hodor enjoys it; the poor guy has to go cower inside himself. I don't think it's very nice of Bran to do. Just because Hodor is like, sort of mentally deficient, it's supposed to be okay? He never does it to anyone else.

LOL btw that Bran is going to be a tree and freaking Rickon is going to end up Lord of Winterfell. (Also, where the hell did Osha TAKE him? He's with cannibals now? Then again, it seems everyone is with cannibals now.)

Coldhands: Okay, I was convinced that he's Benjen. After all, why would a wight help Bran & co.? Yet I read other comments that said Coldhands can't be Benjen. So if that's true... who the hell IS he? And whereTF IS Benjen?

Jaime Lannister: One measley chapter, really? Just to assure us that Brienne isn't dead? Okay. I'm not a Jaime/Brienne shipper. I can see the writing on the wall, as I think that's where GRRM wants to go, but I've been resisting it so far. I would like to ship them because of that, but I just don't. I think Jaime deserves someone more... I guess, womanly. :)) Not Cersei. But like... Sansa. Except I ship Sansa with the Hound. So not her. Just someone like her. Anyway, now Jaime's off with Brienne, probably being led into a trap that Lady Stoneheart has laid. Poor Jaime. I hope he won't take Brienne's betrayal too hard. Though I must admit I was slightly disappointed by how torn he was about the Cersei situation. I mean, yeah, given what they were to each other for so long it's to be expected, but I kind of thought that when he burned her letter it was symbolic of more.

Cersei Lannister: I think she's one of the primary characters whose POV I wish we were never shown, because she was much more awesome before we knew what she was really thinking and found out how greedy, paranoid, and dumb she is. So dumb. That being said, she was actually okay in this book. Still not someone I'd want as my queen, or a friend, but her walk of shame was really well written. I didn't feel sorry for her... well maybe a little, but mostly I felt that it was her due. In fact, I felt that she was getting off easy. Cersei needs to die, or be imprisoned forever, but not before she meets Dany and realizes that the person she's been fearing all this time, Margaery Tyrell, is actually the least of her worries.

Grand Maester Pycelle: Good riddance. Though I will miss saying "Grand Maester P."

Kevan Lannister: Saw his death coming a mile away. It wasn't really shocking. I felt no gladness about it. Even though he's a Lannister, he always seemed decent to me. He didn't seem to have Tywin's mean streak, and he's pretty down to earth. But I can't say I'll miss him, either.

Varys: I love that this whole game of thrones is really being played between two people: Littlefinger and Varys. At first it seemed that Littlefinger was calling all the shots, but now it appears that Varys is even more badass than previously thought. Of the two I've always preferred Varys, who, as he himself says, is probably the only person who's doing what he's doing for the good of the realm.

Now that I know how on top of things Varys actually is, I'm remembering that Illyrio is his man... and Illyrio is the one who gave Dany those three dragon eggs, which I've always thought was a rather extravagant wedding gift. I mean, even if they were 'stone,' they were worth a LOT of money. According to Viserys (on the show; can't remember if this was also stated in the book), one dragon egg could buy him an army. So why would Illyrio give Dany THREE of them? Could it be possible that Varys somehow knew Dany would be able to hatch the eggs? Did he have Illyrio give them to her? But how could he possibly know that? If he had Aegon secreted away, why not give them to Aegon? Then again, Dany is more of a pure Targaryen, since her mother and father were brother/sister, whereas Aegon's only half Targaryen.

Wyman Manderly: Okay, who DIDN'T love this guy by the end of the book? Even though it's never stated outright, it seems that most people (myself included) believe he cooked those missing Freys into those giant wedding pies, of which he ate six slices. Part of me hopes it isn't true, just because cannibalism isn't nearly as sexy as incest, though in ADWD it seems that all the cool kids are doing it. It's really reassuring to know that White Harbor is there in the Boltons' midst. The Boltons and the Freys must be taught several painful lessons.

Ramsay Snow: I didn't think there was anyone more horrible than Gregor Clegane, but this dude is it.

Roose Bolton: Creepy. Every time he's mentioned I think of Christopher Guest's Six-Fingered Man in The Princess Bride, with his soft voice, cold eyes, and inability to empathize with other human beings. Still, preferable to his bastard.

Mance Rayder: Not sure what to think of him, never have. It seems he made good on his promise to find and rescue Arya though, so for that I'm willing to put him in my good column for now. Even if it was the fake Arya, but no one knows that except Theon (ostensibly, though Theon seems convinced that the Boltons must know she's a fake). BTW I was extremely dense and never put together that Abel the Bard was actually Mance, even though he was with six women, even though he seemed strangely intent about escaping Winterfell and taking "Arya," even after the letter Ramsay sent to Jon Snow. >< I didn't make the connection until someone else mentioned it, and then I think GRRM also talks about it in a spoilery interview with EW. Sigh. I is dumb.

Val: She kind of rocks. I'm shipping her with Jon right now.

Jon Snow: The most important plot happening (at least to me) and the biggest cliffhanger. I am amazed/amused by how many people actually think he's dead. I won't say that there's a 100% certainty that he ISN'T, but I think it's 99%. I REALLY don't think he's dead. Not only is there too much to accomplish where he's concerned (he's really the only person who can reconcile the wildlings with the rest of the kingdom, which obviously needs to happen), but there remains the mystery of his parentage. If that wasn't important, it wouldn't have been introduced in the first place. We still don't know who his parents were (or at least, not his mother, with certainty), and that has to be important or it wouldn't be a mystery.

One of Jon's earliest chapters is probably the best of the book. In it, he's struggling with his newfound role as Lord Commander, and in order to prove to the men he can do the job, after much provocation he sentences Janos Slynt to death (good riddance). At first he intends to hang him, but then I guess Ned Stark's teachings kick in, and Jon fucking beheads the guy himself. DUDE. That was so badass. The only criticism I have is that he shouldn't have suggested hanging at all, and simply just put Slynt on the chopping block.

Anyway, Jon's maybe-death. I see several possibilities here. The first is that he is actually dead. I find that very difficult to believe. I think it's a cliffhanger the way other almost-deaths have been cliffhangers. Yes, it doesn't look good. Being stabbed four times (at least) isn't good for your health. But people have survived more than that. And Jon has two allies nearby: Ghost and Melisandre, a powerful priestess. Thoros of Myr, another red priest, brought Beric Dondarrion back to life multiple times; it doesn't seem far fetched to think that Melisandre could do the same for Jon. Anyway, most real deaths in GRRM's universe have not ended on a cliffhanger. The deaths are usually confirmed the next chapters by other characters. That's what happened with Ned, Quentyn, Robb, Catelyn, Tywin, etc. Characters reflect on the impact of those deaths. No such confirmations were given about Jon's death.

So if Jon's alive, what could happen? One theory I've read is that Jon will warg into Ghost, and live out the rest of his days as Ghost. The prologue of the book would seem to support that, because why else have that serve as the prologue, the dude who talks about his second life in a one-eyed wolf? But that wouldn't be satisfying. As Ghost, Jon wouldn't be able to communicate with anyone, and again the mystery of his birth would be meaningless, if he's not alive. And from what we've read, once you have your second life, it's permanent, so it's not like he can ever be human again (and even if he could, so what, it'd be in some random person's body, and it's JON SNOW, his body, that's important -- at least with regard to his parentage).

However, it does seem that Jon's ability to warg and his connection with Ghost is important. Melisandre remarks on it several times. So another possibility is that Jon will live through Ghost while his body heals, maybe using the wolf's strength (or possibly even taking all of it, sacrificing poor Ghost in the process).

And the final possibility, of course, is the one I mentioned first, that Melisandre will call upon R'hollor and use her magic to revive him somehow.

Bottomline, there are too many ways for Jon to live to convince me that he's a goner.

Oh, and the final proof... in the same EW interview with GRRM, EW asks, "Why did you kill Jon Snow?" GRRM's reply is, "Oh, so you think he's dead, do you?" Which is pretty much confirmation that he isn't. :)) GRRM don't play that game. In the interview question about Aegon, however long ago, he could have said, yep, they're both dead, then brought Aegon back anyway. He didn't. He confirmed Rhaenys's death, but wouldn't commit to Aegon's. Because he knew he was alive.

Theories

R+L=J: I still believe this to be true. In fact, I sometimes forget it's just a theory and talk about it like it's canon. :)) Nothing in ADWD debunked this theory; what little we were given only strengthened it. We get more thoughts from Dany and Selmy about how Rhaegar had loved Lyanna (though we don't often get any hints about how she felt for him; is this on purpose, or are we just supposed to assume that she felt the same?), but that's about it.

Actually, now that I think about it some more, of course we can't know how Lyanna felt. The official story is that Rhaegar had kidnapped and raped her, so if we're officially told that she felt the same for him, that takes away from that story. Of course, even if the official story is true, Jon could still be the product of R+L, but would GRRM really want him to be the product of rape? I think not. It totally goes against what we know of Rhaegar's character for him to be a rapist. Also, while we've never heard outright about Lyanna's feelings for Rhaegar, we do know that she was less than impressed with Robert, her betrothed, who she didn't love. Lyanna is found with blue roses -- I believe they're crumbling? So it may very well be the crown that Rhaegar gave her at the Harrenhal tourney. If that's the case, would Lyanna really keep that token of esteem from her rapist? Not to mention, she was supposed to be a strong, willful girl. If she'd been kidnapped, I don't think she'd sit puttering around a tower -- she would have tried to escape and damn the consequences.

Then there's the literary purpose. I think Jon is supposed to be a foil to Ramsay Snow. Ramsay and Jon share a last name, but they're very different people, and I think that GRRM's intention here is to insinuate that it's because Ramsay is the result of rape while Jon is the result of love.

Azor Ahai/TPWWP: GRRM has said that these two legends are one and the same person, so I'm going with that. Early on, I believed Jon had to be TPWWP, because of his secret parentage that no one knew about (with Rhaegar as his father). But more and more it looked like it was Dany, because Aemon seems convinced that it's her, and also he says that in the original language, it could be prince OR princess. And since Dany was also rising to power, and many other signs fit, and because it'd be pretty empowering for a woman to actually be the prophesized savior (a la Whale Rider!), I changed my mind. In fact, no one else seemed to even consider Jon to be a reasonable candidate.

However, ADWD has changed that. I'm now going back to my original theory, that Jon could very well be Azor Ahai. First there was Melisandre looking into her fires and thinking, "I ask R'hollor to show me Azor Ahai and he only shows me Jon Snow." Which, if I were her, it'd kind of make me wonder, but I guess she's blinded by her conviction that Azor Ahai is Stannis (whereas I'm blinded by my conviction that he definitely isn't). Then, there was Jon's death scene. This is the prophecy: "It is written in prophecy as well. When the red star bleeds and the darkness gathers, Azor Ahai shall be born again amidst smoke and salt to wake dragons out of stone." Ser Patrek's arms include a 5-pointed star, and Wun Wun was ripping him apart at the time, so blood was everywhere -- the "bleeding star." Jon's stab wound "smoked" in the cold, and Bowen Marsh was crying as he stabbed Jon (salt). (The whole scene was also reminiscent of Caesar being stabbed to death at the end of Rome S1.)

Obviously the dragons thing would need to happen somehow if Jon actually is Azor Ahai reborn, but let's look at the other elements. Everything works except for the "red star" part. Ser Patrek's arms are either a blue or white star. [personal profile] akscully points out that the star would have been caked in blood, which is true, but a mention of that 5-pointed star was not actually in the text during that scene. Ser Patrek's cloak with all the little stars was, however. Plus, with Jon's "death," he can be reborn. And possibly after being reborn, he can then be unbound from his Night's Watch vows. I mean, they did attempt to kill him. I'd say his watch is done. In fact, what are the words? "It shall not end until my death." Ummm done! Though this part is less clear: "I pledge my life and honor to the Night’s Watch, for this night and all the nights to come." The "all the nights to come" part sort of implies that death doesn't actually release him though. :))

Jon even already possesses a badass sword! Longclaw, which is made of Valaryian steel! Though [personal profile] akscully pointed out that if Jon is indeed Azor Ahai, in order to get the magic flaming sword to work, he'd have to plunge it into the heart of his wife, and as he has no wife, the closest being to him would probably be Ghost. :/ UNLESS IT'S MELISANDRE. OOOOOH. CUZ SHE'S A BELIEVER AND ALL!

I reread the final Jon chapter, and these were the things I noticed: 1) Ghost is restless, anxious, and Jon chalks it up to the boar warg being nearby. But of course, poor Grey Wind had also sensed danger for Robb and Robb had kept him away too. Damn it, Robb and Jon. 2) The raven is also extremely agitated, screaming "Snow, Snow, Snow," and again Jon's like, what is up with that bird, and brushes it off. (And remember in an earlier chapter the raven actually says his full name, which Jon thinks is weird. I don't know what importance that really has, but it must mean SOMEthing.) 3) Melisandre keeps nattering on at him about "daggers in the dark" and how she's his "last hope" (SEE SHE'S GOING TO SAVE HIM). 4) Jon repeats to himself the last words that Maester Aemon said to him: Kill the boy and let the man be born. If Jon dies, that's literally killing the boy he was... and letting the man, Azor Ahai???, be born.

Now to debunk my own theory. >< It may be that all the clues we were given were just to make Jon a red herring possibility for Azor Ahai. Ser Patrek was apparently a character GRRM placed into the story after losing a bet with a friend about the Super Bowl. The friend, Patrick, was rooting for the Dallas Cowboys. Thus Patrek's arms are the Cowboys' colors, there's the stars, etc. So... if that bet had never been made, how would these signs have come about in the story originally? I mean, as [personal profile] akscully says, "What, so if the Giants had won the Super Bowl, Jon WOULDN'T be Azor Ahai?" :)))) So there's that. It seems like the fact that the cloak was fashioned after the Cowboys' colors and logo kind of makes it very hard to believe that GRRM had been planning it all along.

However, Dany's claim isn't as strong as I thought it was. Yes, she's woken the dragons out of stone, that much is true, and it's a big one. But after discussion with [personal profile] akscully, I realized that she's missing the bleeding star. Yes, there was that red comet streaking across the sky in ACOK, but that was after the dragons had already been born. The smoke is easy -- from Drogo's funeral pyre. The salt -- I'm sure there were people crying? Maybe Mirri Maz Duur's tears? If not then the salt is missing as well. But I would definitely say that it counts as Dany being "born again" -- from the life she knew as someone who had other people make her decisions for her, to a powerful queen in her own right. (Then again, the prophecy only says that Azor Ahai will be "born again" -- not that his return has to be from someone else being born again.) There's also the flaming sword that Azor Ahai will wield -- Dany's not a warrior, and it's a little late for her to start training now to become a good enough one to take out the Others left and right. A lot of people have assumed that the flaming swords are actually the dragons, but I think it's more literal than that, otherwise why even mention dragons in the prophecy at all? The dragons are themselves directly mentioned, so I don't think they count as the sword also.

Finally, the biggest thing working against Dany is the fact that a character -- Maester Aemon -- has outright said that she is TPWWP. :)) Or at least strongly suspects it. GRRM strikes me as the kind of writer who likes to surprise his audience and keep his cards close to the vest until he's ready to reveal them, so the fact that a character has already outright stated that Dany may likely be TPWWP kind of strikes her off the list, imho. She's a red herring. Because now if it's true, we'll have already learned it long ago (in book 4, of 7 books), and that just doesn't seem like GRRM's style.

Yet for Azor Ahai to be someone totally new (and by new, I mean, introduced later in the series... like Aegon, or worse, someone we haven't even met yet) would be very disappointing. It's much more exciting if it's someone we've known from the beginning.

Jon's possible legitimacy: Okay, this is my own pet theory and I'm NOT saying it's likely to be true. It just COULD be true. I have no problem with Jon being a bastard. I think it's partly made him into the strong, independent person that he is. However, I also keep thinking that he's The Prince Who Was Promised, and in order for that to be true, he kind of needs to be a Prince. If he were the only person with Targaryen blood left, it wouldn't be much of an issue, but there first was Dany, and now Aegon, so his claim needs to be legitimate (unless they BOTH die, but I really don't want this series to turn into a Last Man Standing sort of thing, because if that were the case, I'd have to put money on Dany, and I like Jon best). And I was thinking... what if he ISN'T actually a bastard? That would certainly turn things on their head, because the one thing Jon is identified with being is a bastard. Tyrion even helped him accept that as part of himself and take strength from it.

My "argument" (and again, it's actually just a crackpot theory) is that it's actually quite possible Rhaegar married Lyanna. He supposedly loved her (as far as we can tell from all the other characters' recollection, anyway -- with the exception of Jon Connington, who loved Rhaegar, and interestingly, never even thinks of Lyanna), and the Targaryens have a historical precedent of practicing polygamy. So it's not impossible that Rhaegar would have wanted to marry "his Northern girl." In response to this theory, [personal profile] akscully said, maybe she didn't want to marry HIM, she was all impetuous and wild, maybe she didn't want to be his second wife. Which is totally possible. Except... would she have really rather have been his mistress? I mean, she was, what? 16? 17? And living in the society they lived in? I mean, in all likelihood, that's exactly what she was. They were probably just lovers. But Rhaegar COULD have married her, and if he did, then Jon isn't illegitimate.

Ned/Ashara: There's a strange moment when Selmy is reflecting on his own lost love, Ashara Dayne, and he seems to imply that she did have a thing going with Ned (because Selmy was bound by vows of celibacy), but if so that would have been at Harrenhal, which if memory serves, they danced a dance together, and would have been before Ned married Catelyn so it wouldn't have been cheating. Ashara had Targaryen-like coloring (tall, fair, violet eyes), so potentially baby Aegon could have been HER baby... except that Selmy also tells us that the baby was a girl and stillborn, and that's why Ashara killed herself. But is it possible that the child she'd lost was hers and Ned's?

Tyrion = Targaryen? Okay, I don't want Tyrion to be a Targaryen. That's just way too soap opera dramatic. It's NICE that there are gray characters, that Tyrion should be a Lannister and yet somehow still a good guy. They don't ALL have to be Targaryens. And even if people want Tyrion to be one of the three heads (of the dragon), it still doesn't mean he has to be a Targaryen. I kind of see that prophecy as being figurative rather than literal.

However, I will grudgingly admit that there were two things that I noticed (maybe there were more) from ADWD that actually bolsters this theory. First is that apparently Aerys had the hots for Joanna Lannister (and in fact did some creepy unknown thing on her and Tywin's wedding night). Yeah, I wasn't happy about that either. What is this, Days of Our Seven Kingdoms? Why is everyone actually in love with someone else? Anyway. So people are saying that Tyrion is actually the result of a union between Joanna and Aerys. Again, I resist this idea; it makes Tyrion and everything he's done so much less interesting, but it's possible. There's also his apparent resistance to disease -- namely, greyscale. He was IN THE SAME WATER as the stone dude, and even touched the guy, and he's fine. Yet Jon Connington has the beginnings of the disease. How that's significant is because Dany herself also reflects on how she's never been sick, which is a Targaryen ability to resist disease (as Viserys once told her, [personal profile] slitherhither points out). The fact that Tyrion didn't contract cholera -- or, "the bloody flux" -- is actually explainable and has nothing to do with resistance to disease. He made it quite clear that he knew to avoid water from the river and only drink clean well water.

The Three-headed Dragon Prophecy: I have to admit, I'm not actually that interested in the answer to this one. Not enough, at least, to keep me up at night thinking about it. This is one of those things that I'm content to find out in due course, when GRRM is ready to reveal it. So I've spent very little time thinking about it myself, but a lot of time reading other peoples' theories, because it is interesting to a lot of people. So this is what I think: Two of the heads are almost certainly Dany and Jon, both because they're extremely central characters and because they're both Targaryens (probably). The third could be Tyrion or Aegon. As I've said, I hope Tyrion isn't magically a Targaryen, because I think he could still be the third head without being one. Or maybe he's not one of the heads, he doesn't have to be. Arya is still a cool character and important to the story/eventual culmination (I'm sure), and she's unlikely to be one of them.

What I think is interesting about this prophecy is that there are now three dragons in the world. This may or may not be the case, but I kind of feel like that "matches up" with the three-headed dragon. In my mind, all the dragons are going to get ridden at some point or another, by whoever the three heads are supposed to represent. Dany is obviously one of them. I just don't see Tyrion riding a dragon. I think most likely another dragon will be ridden by Aegon. Maybe he'll die in the epic battle waged between Westeros and the Others (but that's a theory for another day). We know that only Targaryens are dragon riders -- true Targaryens, as Quentyn Martell learned to his sorrow. If Aegon is a true Targaryen, I can't imagine one of the dragons are not intended for him (if they are intended each to have riders, which I'm not saying they are, but IF). That leaves the third dragon. What makes me nervous about whether this is truly intended for Jon, or whether he is actually a true Targaryen, is because he burns his hand defending Lord Commander Mormont, and the burned hand is frequently mentioned. Unlike Dany, he's not immune to fire. Then again, Viserys was a true Targaryen and he wasn't immune to fire, either. So Jon could still be the product of R+L, even without that immunity (in fact, you could say that since he's half Stark, he may not have many Targaryen qualities... as his looks attest. Come to think of it, Aegon may not be immune to fire, either -- he's half Martell). But it makes the idea of him riding one of the dragons less likely, and I have to admit it's something I'd love to have happen. :D

Okay, those are all my thoughts for now. Did I forget any characters? I probably did.

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