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ASOIAF #6: The Great Northern Conspiracy
I was going to save this one for later, because it's super meaty, but it's the hot topic on the forums last night/today, so I figure, what the hell.
I'm talking about The Great Northern Conspiracy.
Have you heard of it? Do you know what it is? It's a hell of a theory (originally posted by Apple Martini in December 2012).
It started with a forum thread that's grown exponentially. I can't take reading forum threads that go on that long, but happily someone (Yeade) has distilled the theory down in essay form, so all the extraneous stuff is removed, while the most important points are covered. She's posted the essay to Tumblr in seven parts, but the font's small and light, and I wanted to read the whole thing in one sitting, so I put it into a Word doc. Be forewarned: It's 43 Word pages long. :)) I told you it's a hell of a theory. Lots of supporting quotes from the text.
For those of you who don't have the time or inclination to read a 43-page hypothesis, here's the tl;dr version, though I highly rec reading the theory itself, which includes actual text proof points than I'm skipping in my summary version.
The Great Northern Conspiracy summarized:
The basis of this theory relies on one assumption: That Robb made Jon his heir in his will.
As a refresher, the last time we saw Robb's will come up was when he was discussing it with Catelyn. Robb wanted to legitimize Jon and make him his heir, while Catelyn was extremely against it (I will refrain from a ranty tirade and leave it at that). Robb believed that his trueborn brothers were dead, Arya had disappeared/was presumed dead, and Sansa was married to Tyrion. The will was to prevent the North from falling into Lannister hands should Robb die childless. (There was a theory that Jeyne Westerling could be pregnant, due to some conflicting ways her hips were described by different characters, but GRRM has since admitted that was an error, and with the way the TV show completely changed her character and even had her killed at the Red Wedding along with Robb and everyone else -- which doesn't happen in the books -- I think that theory is finally dead, because the showrunners know the broad strokes of GRRM's tale, and if anything important was going to come of her or a potential pregnancy, they wouldn't have done that imho.)
We are not privy to the will's contents (or even where the will itself IS), so for awhile people would say that it's not certain Robb went through with legitimizing Jon and making him his heir, that maybe he changed his mind off screen after his discussion with Catelyn. However, it would appear that we've gotten confirmation.
The World of Ice and Fire app, approved by GRRM, expressly states: "So, leaving Jeyne behind with her mother, Robb marches to the Twins for Edmure's wedding. Along the way, he concludes that he must make sure Winterfell has an heir should anything happen to him, and over Catelyn's objections legitimizes Jon Snow and names him his heir." There are still some naysayers who say that nothing is true until it's written in the text of the novels, which I understand, to a certain extent. They also say that maybe this detail got by GRRM, or they're unhappy that something so important was confirmed in such a fashion. I get that also, but oh well. The description of the app states: "The vast majority of the app really only restates, in more concise form, details that are scattered across the novels; many things you might think are new are just things you've forgotten or didn't quite piece together, in other words! But there are some new details buried in there, both minor and not-so-minor, thanks to a long, long Q&A with GRRM that provided us quite a few details that have never been confirmed before. In the case of some entries that seemed to be particularly sensitive in terms of the overarching plot, special note of them was made so that they could receive extra scrutiny and make sure (to the best of our ability) that they were correct."
So while in my mind the contents of Robb's will are not 100% certain until it's confirmed in the text of the novels, this gets me 95% there. I really don't think it's a huge leap to assume that Robb did what he said he was going to do.
Okay, so now that that's been established, what of it?
There are a number of lords who are present to witness Robb's decree. They all know what it says, and a couple of them were sent out to Greywater Watch (with false letters, in case they were captured), and since the RW these Northern lords who once supported Robb have scattered and aligned themselves with this or that faction.
The GNC posits that all these Northern lords are actually involved in a secret conspiracy to make good on Robb's will. They know what it said and who the next King in the North is supposed to be. They're sick of the Southron lords and want to be independent again. They're biding their time until they can be better positioned to make all this happen, keeping quiet about who they're going to champion so as not to draw unwanted attention to this person and thus he can be kept safe for the moment (meaning even Jon doesn't know).
As an aside to go back to what I said at the beginning -- the reason it's come up again as a hot topic on the forums is because a Stannis fan made a post that says the GNC won't happen, and if it does happen it'll "dishonor the North forever." This is because part of the theory is that the North is going to use Stannis against the Boltons, and once the Boltons are no longer a threat, the North will sweep Stannis aside in favor of restoring a Stark as KitN. Stannis fans really take issue with the idea that the North would be that ungrateful to a man who has helped them out quite a bit. As someone who likes Stannis and do think he's done a lot of right and admirable things, I also recognize that it's a time of war, and if they don't go out of their way to prevent him from wrecking himself on Bolton, it's hardly going to "dishonor the North forever." They are sick of Southron politics and want to be independent again, that much is clear. If Stannis helps them out, they'll say, "Thanks dude, and good luck with that Iron Throne thing." They might even help him win it, because a king on the IT who is sympathetic to the North is better than one who's not, but at the end of the day, they're not going to want Stannis as their king. They want the North to be free. And the problem with Stannis is, he's never going to let that happen. He's a hardass who doesn't compromise. He might not even want the IT, but he's going to fight for it because it's rightfully his. In his mind, the North is part of the Seven Kingdoms, and thus Stannis is its rightful ruler. He's not going to let the North quietly secede. (Not to mention if he does allow it, it'll just encourage the other six kingdoms to do the same.)
As you can tell from the aforementioned length (and the length of this summary), the theory is super detailed, with a lot of conjecture that's reinforced by textual examples. In fact, the theory has grown by leaps and bounds from its original, more modest beginnings, to the point where it's like an act of Congress -- some fans believe in some points and not others, some believe in the whole thing, some don't believe any of it.
I fall into the "believe some of it" camp. I just cannot believe all of it. Some of it is seriously reaching. I believe in the most basic tenet, which is that the Northerners are planning *something*, but I don't know that they're trying to make Jon KitN. I don't believe that Barbrey Dustin is in on it. I don't believe that little Lyanna Mormont knows about it. I don't believe that the Blackfish is secretly in on it. I don't believe that Old Flint and Norrey are at The Wall to spy on Jon's leadership abilities. In fact, I guess what I'm saying is that, while interesting and thorough, I don't believe in the intricacy of the conspiracy that the GNC posits.
I do believe Jon has a destiny (or as some detractors say, that he's a mythical special snowflake -- I say it with affection <g>), and it's not impossible that Robb's will is going to make him KitN for a time (at least until he finds out, along with everyone else, that his trueborn brothers are still alive. Everyone can at least agree that Jon would never, ever take the title or Winterfell away from them). He will be a rallying force in some way, imho -- but that's another theory for another time.
I would like for Robb's will to be meaningful in some way. I'd like for Jon to know that Robb did that for him (though, granted, only because Robb thought the rest of his siblings were dead or in Lannister hands). I'd like it to matter, but there is one big thing that makes me doubt that it does -- that even if the will does exist, nothing is going to come of it. And that is that the TV show doesn't mention it, and in fact, went out of its way to make the existence of a will unnecessary. I know, I know, it's blasphemous to bring the TV show into this. (Book readers act like you're trying to kill puppies when you do it, and I myself think the TV show is kind of a travesty and don't understand why people love it so much. But anyway.) Yet I can't forget that the showrunners, as noted previously, know the broad strokes of the story. If Robb's will was important, so important that it's the thing around which the North is rallying, would they have impregnated Talisa, making it completely unnecessary for show!Robb to have a will at all? (Which he doesn't, as far as we know. Some people are saying that they could pull it out of their asses later, but I think that would be pretty lame.) I think not.
The GNC is a really cool theory, and I'd love for there to be some big movement of people trying to make Jon KitN, but I just don't think that's the case. (And even if it were the case, it's not to say that such a thing would actually come to fruition. Best laid plans and all that.) And it also wouldn't be satisfying, because it's not a title he'd hold for long anyway, given that Bran and Rickon are still alive. (Though Bran is unlikely to take the title either; I'm almost positive Rickon is going to be KitN or at least Lord of Winterfell -- that's the whole point of his existence, imho.) If there's a throne that's intended for Jon, it's one that's very pointy and made of iron. But that is also a theory for another day.
I'm talking about The Great Northern Conspiracy.
Have you heard of it? Do you know what it is? It's a hell of a theory (originally posted by Apple Martini in December 2012).
It started with a forum thread that's grown exponentially. I can't take reading forum threads that go on that long, but happily someone (Yeade) has distilled the theory down in essay form, so all the extraneous stuff is removed, while the most important points are covered. She's posted the essay to Tumblr in seven parts, but the font's small and light, and I wanted to read the whole thing in one sitting, so I put it into a Word doc. Be forewarned: It's 43 Word pages long. :)) I told you it's a hell of a theory. Lots of supporting quotes from the text.
For those of you who don't have the time or inclination to read a 43-page hypothesis, here's the tl;dr version, though I highly rec reading the theory itself, which includes actual text proof points than I'm skipping in my summary version.
The Great Northern Conspiracy summarized:
The basis of this theory relies on one assumption: That Robb made Jon his heir in his will.
As a refresher, the last time we saw Robb's will come up was when he was discussing it with Catelyn. Robb wanted to legitimize Jon and make him his heir, while Catelyn was extremely against it (I will refrain from a ranty tirade and leave it at that). Robb believed that his trueborn brothers were dead, Arya had disappeared/was presumed dead, and Sansa was married to Tyrion. The will was to prevent the North from falling into Lannister hands should Robb die childless. (There was a theory that Jeyne Westerling could be pregnant, due to some conflicting ways her hips were described by different characters, but GRRM has since admitted that was an error, and with the way the TV show completely changed her character and even had her killed at the Red Wedding along with Robb and everyone else -- which doesn't happen in the books -- I think that theory is finally dead, because the showrunners know the broad strokes of GRRM's tale, and if anything important was going to come of her or a potential pregnancy, they wouldn't have done that imho.)
We are not privy to the will's contents (or even where the will itself IS), so for awhile people would say that it's not certain Robb went through with legitimizing Jon and making him his heir, that maybe he changed his mind off screen after his discussion with Catelyn. However, it would appear that we've gotten confirmation.
The World of Ice and Fire app, approved by GRRM, expressly states: "So, leaving Jeyne behind with her mother, Robb marches to the Twins for Edmure's wedding. Along the way, he concludes that he must make sure Winterfell has an heir should anything happen to him, and over Catelyn's objections legitimizes Jon Snow and names him his heir." There are still some naysayers who say that nothing is true until it's written in the text of the novels, which I understand, to a certain extent. They also say that maybe this detail got by GRRM, or they're unhappy that something so important was confirmed in such a fashion. I get that also, but oh well. The description of the app states: "The vast majority of the app really only restates, in more concise form, details that are scattered across the novels; many things you might think are new are just things you've forgotten or didn't quite piece together, in other words! But there are some new details buried in there, both minor and not-so-minor, thanks to a long, long Q&A with GRRM that provided us quite a few details that have never been confirmed before. In the case of some entries that seemed to be particularly sensitive in terms of the overarching plot, special note of them was made so that they could receive extra scrutiny and make sure (to the best of our ability) that they were correct."
So while in my mind the contents of Robb's will are not 100% certain until it's confirmed in the text of the novels, this gets me 95% there. I really don't think it's a huge leap to assume that Robb did what he said he was going to do.
Okay, so now that that's been established, what of it?
There are a number of lords who are present to witness Robb's decree. They all know what it says, and a couple of them were sent out to Greywater Watch (with false letters, in case they were captured), and since the RW these Northern lords who once supported Robb have scattered and aligned themselves with this or that faction.
The GNC posits that all these Northern lords are actually involved in a secret conspiracy to make good on Robb's will. They know what it said and who the next King in the North is supposed to be. They're sick of the Southron lords and want to be independent again. They're biding their time until they can be better positioned to make all this happen, keeping quiet about who they're going to champion so as not to draw unwanted attention to this person and thus he can be kept safe for the moment (meaning even Jon doesn't know).
As an aside to go back to what I said at the beginning -- the reason it's come up again as a hot topic on the forums is because a Stannis fan made a post that says the GNC won't happen, and if it does happen it'll "dishonor the North forever." This is because part of the theory is that the North is going to use Stannis against the Boltons, and once the Boltons are no longer a threat, the North will sweep Stannis aside in favor of restoring a Stark as KitN. Stannis fans really take issue with the idea that the North would be that ungrateful to a man who has helped them out quite a bit. As someone who likes Stannis and do think he's done a lot of right and admirable things, I also recognize that it's a time of war, and if they don't go out of their way to prevent him from wrecking himself on Bolton, it's hardly going to "dishonor the North forever." They are sick of Southron politics and want to be independent again, that much is clear. If Stannis helps them out, they'll say, "Thanks dude, and good luck with that Iron Throne thing." They might even help him win it, because a king on the IT who is sympathetic to the North is better than one who's not, but at the end of the day, they're not going to want Stannis as their king. They want the North to be free. And the problem with Stannis is, he's never going to let that happen. He's a hardass who doesn't compromise. He might not even want the IT, but he's going to fight for it because it's rightfully his. In his mind, the North is part of the Seven Kingdoms, and thus Stannis is its rightful ruler. He's not going to let the North quietly secede. (Not to mention if he does allow it, it'll just encourage the other six kingdoms to do the same.)
As you can tell from the aforementioned length (and the length of this summary), the theory is super detailed, with a lot of conjecture that's reinforced by textual examples. In fact, the theory has grown by leaps and bounds from its original, more modest beginnings, to the point where it's like an act of Congress -- some fans believe in some points and not others, some believe in the whole thing, some don't believe any of it.
I fall into the "believe some of it" camp. I just cannot believe all of it. Some of it is seriously reaching. I believe in the most basic tenet, which is that the Northerners are planning *something*, but I don't know that they're trying to make Jon KitN. I don't believe that Barbrey Dustin is in on it. I don't believe that little Lyanna Mormont knows about it. I don't believe that the Blackfish is secretly in on it. I don't believe that Old Flint and Norrey are at The Wall to spy on Jon's leadership abilities. In fact, I guess what I'm saying is that, while interesting and thorough, I don't believe in the intricacy of the conspiracy that the GNC posits.
I do believe Jon has a destiny (or as some detractors say, that he's a mythical special snowflake -- I say it with affection <g>), and it's not impossible that Robb's will is going to make him KitN for a time (at least until he finds out, along with everyone else, that his trueborn brothers are still alive. Everyone can at least agree that Jon would never, ever take the title or Winterfell away from them). He will be a rallying force in some way, imho -- but that's another theory for another time.
I would like for Robb's will to be meaningful in some way. I'd like for Jon to know that Robb did that for him (though, granted, only because Robb thought the rest of his siblings were dead or in Lannister hands). I'd like it to matter, but there is one big thing that makes me doubt that it does -- that even if the will does exist, nothing is going to come of it. And that is that the TV show doesn't mention it, and in fact, went out of its way to make the existence of a will unnecessary. I know, I know, it's blasphemous to bring the TV show into this. (Book readers act like you're trying to kill puppies when you do it, and I myself think the TV show is kind of a travesty and don't understand why people love it so much. But anyway.) Yet I can't forget that the showrunners, as noted previously, know the broad strokes of the story. If Robb's will was important, so important that it's the thing around which the North is rallying, would they have impregnated Talisa, making it completely unnecessary for show!Robb to have a will at all? (Which he doesn't, as far as we know. Some people are saying that they could pull it out of their asses later, but I think that would be pretty lame.) I think not.
The GNC is a really cool theory, and I'd love for there to be some big movement of people trying to make Jon KitN, but I just don't think that's the case. (And even if it were the case, it's not to say that such a thing would actually come to fruition. Best laid plans and all that.) And it also wouldn't be satisfying, because it's not a title he'd hold for long anyway, given that Bran and Rickon are still alive. (Though Bran is unlikely to take the title either; I'm almost positive Rickon is going to be KitN or at least Lord of Winterfell -- that's the whole point of his existence, imho.) If there's a throne that's intended for Jon, it's one that's very pointy and made of iron. But that is also a theory for another day.